Ryanair has adjusted its passenger target for fiscal year 2027, lowering it from 216 million to 214 million, as the company reduces its winter capacity in response to high unhedged jet-fuel costs. The airline highlighted that jet fuel prices are currently around $140 per barrel and warned that if these elevated prices persist, European short-haul airfares could see a significant increase. In light of managing capacity during the typically weaker winter season, Ryanair anticipates that passenger traffic from November to March will remain largely flat compared to the previous year.
To mitigate the impact of soaring fuel costs, Ryanair has hedged approximately 80% of its fiscal 2027 fuel needs through March 2027 at a rate of about $67 per barrel. This strategy provides the airline with better protection against the current high prices. The reduction in winter capacity is expected to decrease seasonal losses by an estimated €70 million to €100 million. As part of this strategy, Ryanair has already withdrawn five aircraft from its Charleroi base in Belgium and reduced its Brussels schedule by about two million seats for the winter of 2026 and summer of 2027. The airline also cautioned that carriers with less fuel hedging might face greater financial strain if high oil prices continue.
Despite the challenging winter outlook, Ryanair remains optimistic about summer growth. The airline expects its summer traffic to increase by more than 5%, with August passenger numbers already showing a 6% rise year-on-year, reaching 22.2 million. The airline maintained a 96% load factor while operating over 120,500 flights in August, although more than 400 flights were canceled due to eruptions at Mount Etna.
Ryanair also addressed its financial expectations, indicating that its fiscal 2027 profit after tax is anticipated to fall short of the record levels achieved in the previous financial year. However, the airline stated that it is premature to provide detailed profit guidance at this stage.