Shifting Tides: Box Office Momentum to Stall Before a Q4 Explosion

The powerful tide of box office momentum that has carried the industry through 2025 is expected to stall this fall, before a massive explosion of activity in the year’s fourth quarter. The momentum was built on the backs of hits like Weapons, which has amassed an impressive $148.8 million globally.
The tide has been strong all year, with unexpected currents leading to huge successes. Jurassic World Rebirth rode a wave of audience enthusiasm to an $828 million finish, while original horror films found deep water and thrived.
Now, the tide is going out, leaving a quieter, calmer market. The release schedule for late August and September is considered a low tide, with no major blockbusters to create big waves. The industry will rely on a fleet of smaller boats, like The Rose and The Conjuring: Last Rites, to navigate these waters.
The tsunami is scheduled for October. The release of Tron: Ares is expected to be the start of a massive wave of box office activity, with Mortal Kombat II, Wicked: For Good, and Zootopia 2 following in its wake, promising a spectacular end to the year.